Anyone following the Greek implosion?
  • The country is in a shambles. D-Day ("D" as in "Default") is here as Varoufakis has said Greece will announce today that it won't be paying back the IMF. 

    The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire...

    I've said it before, the US has said it since, and I'll say it again: Fuck the EU. I'm popping some corn for this one.
    Noobied by 1tallchick
  • Sort of following this on the wayside.

    I think Greece will spiral into poverty.
    As the generations pass and the culture shifts to a more meagre accepted quality of living, perhaps then they'll balance out their country's spend by essentially rebooting from the crash/nothing.

    I hope that this doesn't have much of an effect on the rest of the world and although the default of a country within the union is headline-worthy and sad, I think other countries will just cop the loss and carry on with business the best they can.

    There was an African country whose economy crashed and they just trade in US Dollars now.
  • So what the heck happens if they default? What are some simple likely scenarios for their possible decisions?
  • We'll see. The world didn't burn during the sub-prime crisis. Well, Detroit almost did. If you're looking for a place to pop your popcorn best try the IMF, or other official channels holding more of the 330+ Billion Euro debt. Or http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/06/29/puerto-rico-debt-crisis-default/29458475/ < Puerto Rico seems more likely to be going to hell in a handbasket.

    I'm kinda wondering what the fallout will be throughout the world. How it'll affect Germany and other better-faring EU nations, Or the UK who doesn't have the Euro, how it'll affect the US and as a result Canada. I think the markets' swinging in the face of overhyped uncertainty is going to have a far wider effect than the default itself.

    Here's a good article/video analysis of the 'pre-game' situation, if you will, from BNN, which is a Canadian perspective
    http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/6/29/Bank-of-Canada-Finance-Department-monitor-Greek-crisis.aspx

    I really think the world is just changing, the new world order ain't cutting it anymore, and we're going into decline because, empires don't last forever. Greece is just one example of a bloated welfare state. France and England are others, I'm sure Canada will follow eventually. And I say this as a socialist; their system was being heavily abused. Something had to give eventually.

    That said, I'd like to see what Sloth said happen. That they reboot of their own ingenuity and acceptance of reality. The world could use more of this.
  • PS, good topic!
  • I have a friend who came over from Greece for University and from what I can tell he's..... not all that keen to go back.
  • Who wants to graduate to nojobland.
  • Obviously, if the large financial institutions had a time machine button, they'd press it. Or at least I would hope. The push for austerity means that Greece's GDP is about 80% of what it was pre-recession, when sound policy could have had it over 100% pretty easily. The debt demands from troika+1 were ridiculous. 3.5% budget surpluses in a depression. Literally impossible. This probably could have been mitigated if some of the public debt was canceled back in 2012 or if the payment plans were actually realistic. But completely ridiculous expectations and guidelines were hoisted on Greece and levied against the poorest via desires for increased taxes on utilities, or cutting pensions, what have you. The IMF and Eurogroup don't want to fix Greece so much as they want Greece to bow to them.

    It makes sense for Greece to leave the EU at this point and get control of their monetary policy. They will go into a deep depression. It will be fixable. The question is if Greece has the political leadership to fix it. It hasn't inspired a lot of confidence. They were letting as much tax revenue go uncollected as was being collected, which is just crazy to think about.
  • I'm a big supporter of closer European integration, but the European Union really have not handled this well. It's a mixture of poor economic mismanagement during the 'boom' years by the Greek government (but I think many countries have been guilty of that) and the insistence on cutting government spending during poor economic performance by the EU and IMF. 

    The sooner the world realises austerity measures are not the way to improve economic performance, the better. But in the meantime, like @GoodEnoughForMe said, I think Greece leaving the EU at this point is the best outcome for them.
  • To be honest, it's hard to argue the EU and the Eurozone as a whole has been anything but a success. This recession revealed some definite faults and kinks that need to be worked out. But it doesn't exactly damn the entire institution. There are financial problems that need to be tackled, but they can be tackled with greater integration and financial oversight.
  • HAHAHA. The EU, a success? Some funny shit.

    Greece is screwed whichever way it goes.

    I'll put money on France joining the shit list in the not too distant future. The French and the Brits did some naughties with Canadian monies. There's a reason Carney is head of the BOE.

    GEFM, for the love of fuck dude, it's not all hunky dory! Your optimism and faith in this rotted global economy is at shill-worthy levels. The coming crash is inevitable. You can ignore the math, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring the math. The global markets are a complete fiction at this point, and the currency war is full steam ahead. There's only one way this ends. The same way it always ends.
  • The single largest contributor to the idea of the Eurozone and in turn, the EU, was to prevent the large scale wars that had plagued Europe for 300 years, the likes of which were the deadliest that the world had ever seen. Given that they have been avoided (with other factors, sure), I'd say it's been a success. The democratization and liberalization of most of Eastern Europe was also a success of the Eurozone.

    How long are you going to wait for the crash? You've been on these forums talking about it for years. I mean, I don't know how old you are, but it's never happened in your life. There's been a grand total of one global depression in the entire post-Industrial Revolution world, and it didn't really cause a massive shift in society. There is no incoming global catastrophe.
  • There always might be a catastrophe, but I'm with you, goodenough, doomsayers have been doomsaying since I was a kid.
  • Well, Greece defaulted on a 1.7 billion Euro payment. First time a developed nation has stiffed the IMF.
  • SO. Looks like China's going tits up:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/06/26/china-stock-market-crash_n_7674838.html
    But no one's raising huge alarm bells yet. Yet.

    Also looks like Greece is going to be in serious trouble soon. Nothing's really happened YET. Remains to be seen what'll transpire given the results of this upcoming referendum.
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/greece-is-prepared-to-accept-the-creditors-demand-greek-prime-minister/article25215116/
  • @Epke really interesting article, thanks for posting, I had no idea.
  • Are you forgetting when the doomsayers have been right? Every bubble (and there's been a few now) have been predicted by these "doomsayers", all of whom were mocked and ridiculed before the crashes, and swept under the rugs after, so ass clowns like Bernanke can get on TV and say "Nobody could have seen it coming".

    The whole "Europe hasn't seen war since the EU" is only 20 years worth, and not true anyway. And I guess the domestic civil strife means nothing within the EU? Hardly a happy family.

    I don't have to wait. The crash is here. Only fools can't see it. We never recovered from Lehman, and all that shit is still in the system. Not only that, but no lessons have been learned. The global economy now is in worse shape than it was when Lehman went down. It's only a matter of time.

    Democracy in the EU? Are you kidding?

    Have you ever heard the quote about a man going broke slowly at first, and then suddenly all at once? The USA has 18 trillion in debt. Do you seriously believe that will ever be paid back? Deutschbank is exposed to close to 100x Greece's GDP in derivatives. Do you see a happy ending there?

    You know the Great Depression wasn't referred to as such until after it was over, right? Go tell the people in Greece that there's been no crash in our generation. Or the people in Cyprus. Or the people in Ireland. Or Iceland. Or Portugal. Or Spain. Or Italy. Or so many other non-EU countries. Go tell them how awesome the non-crashing economy is.

    Why do you think China is being such a pain in the ass recently? Why are they and their allies buying every ounce of gold they can find? Why the founding of the AIIB? Why are they targetting the dollar for assassination as the #1 reserve currency any chance they get? Do you have the slightest idea what is happening here?

    Wake up and smell the shit you are shovelling dude. For your own sake.

    "There is no incoming global catastrophe". I'll have to laugh at you now for that one, because when it does come, I doubt I'll have time to come to NoobToob and say "I told you so". But yeah, what would I know? I'm sure you have all these problems accounted for and solutions at hand, at 25 years old. You are unresearched, and sound like your economic studies begin and end with Krugman.

    Oh, and by the way, check out the history of non-backed fiat currencies and get back to me with how long they survive. And then explain to me why "this time is different".

  • Nah, you're the one who has no idea what you're talking about dude. If you did, you'd know that the US debt means jack shit in the scheme of things, and dropping the 18 trillion number is a sign of someone trying to play the big boogie man card. Dept to GDP ratio is at least a better metric to use, and even then, the US really doesn't have debt concerns because of the strength of its currency and the fact the the deficit has been reduced drastically.

    Also, you have no idea how currency works if you think the ones we have now are non backed. The US currency is backed by the the full faith of the US government, which is worth a LOT to the world at large, and is way more secure than being backed by gold. If you're a gold standard guy, then gg, there's a reason no legit economists want to go back to it.

    If you honestly think the economy is worse now than it was in the throes of the recession, I don't know what to say. There's no metric in which that is true.

    The war thing is true. There has been no large scale European war. There have been obviously conflicts and some have been bad, but the whole point was to prevent WW3. 70 years and counting.
  • The value of gold is just as imaginary as anything else. There is a finite amount, but the value assigned per unit is completely flexible and is just as subject to human opinion as what we all think a dollar is worth. Certainly pegging your currency to gold makes it harder to expand your money supply but manipulation is still more than possible. It is also important to realize that many crises were caused by not enough money. Having control of your money supply is crucial to have in control of your economy.
  • “Everything's fine, this I know,
    For Paul Krugman tells me so”.

    This will be my final post before I “walk off in a huff” as westsw likes to put it.

    Let's examine:

    The “doomsayer” theory: Things will continue to get worse until an eventual POP moment.

    The “fairy dust salesman” theory: Recovery is just around the corner! We just need MORE government and MORE integration and MORE regulations.

    Now, given I'm clearly a “doomsayer” and you lads are clearly selling fairy dust, tell me, which theory has been holding more water? The IMF economic forecasts have been disastrously and hilariously wrong in their recovery predictions, yet because the crash hasn't happened yet, I'm the fake?

    Lay some data on me. I dare you. You know as well as I do that you're words are hollow, and you're shooting blanks. You also know I will destroy you if you even try to bring some numbers my way, so you don't. Instead I'm a doomsayer, and you “don't know what to say”. Of course you don't, because you got nothin'. I can say in reply though that if you think things have improved, you have your head up your ass.

    You see why I regard you as morons and can't resist a chuckle?

    In my corner I have data, evidence, my prediction from years ago that the EU would continue going to shit and has done coming true; and in your corner you have....Hope. Faith. Happy Feelings. And petulant declarations of “there will be no crash” even as it all falls down around your ears.

    You are the Creationists in this debate, whereas I'm bringing math to the table.

    Ironic really considering how leftists tend to claim they love science and math when dealing with religion, but abandon it completely with economics, or even feminism (oh, and apparently heterosexual relationships are a social construct now too. LMFAO).

    But I digress.

    Now as for economics, and my philosophy, and why I “walk off in a huff” allow me to shed some light on all these things, as they are all connected to money. Or more precisely, my time, which as the old saying goes “is money”.

    Those pieces of paper in your wallet, those numbers in your bank account, and those gold bars in the safe, are not money. Your time is money. You have a finite life and how you choose to spend it is up to you. When you spend that time in the service of others you get paid for it in some form (hopefully). What those pieces of paper in your wallet REALLY are is a physical manifestation of time -of a part of your finite life- that you have given up in exchange for them.

    This is why non-backed fiat currencies are always going to fail, and why they always have, and why you should ridicule proponents of a purely cashless society as much as you can, because if there's no restrictions at all on the money supply beyond how many 0's Mr Libtard PhD would like to click into existence, rampant inflation will always follow. History has shown this time and time again. And what do we say about people who ignore history?

    So when I “walk off in a huff” it's not because I'm out of things to say or because you've won the debate or anything like that. It's simply a combination of me realizing a lost cause, me not particularly caring ultimately what happens to you as a result of your willingly ignorant beliefs, and my time being finite. I just don't have any time left to give you (unless you'd like to send some money to my Paypal, then I will entertain your idiocy until your heart's content). And this, is the last 10 minutes you get from me.

    Enjoy your cognitive dissonance. Enjoy ignoring history. Enjoy playing games instead of learning a thing or two about how the world works. It's your time, and your choice. But don't come crying later.

    Adieu.
  • For having so much "data," you've presented none of it. But since you asked, here: 

    image
    You'll notice that there were a lot more currency shocks during the gold standard than in the nearly 100 years post gold standard.

    Anyways, your time is money statement is just weird. Money is what it is, our time is something we can use in many ways, but to say the two are interchangeable is a stretch. That's such a broad look and a weird concept of the two. And I love how you have to bring feminism and the like in, too, even though it has no relevance, you just have to reach out and show how bigoted you are every time you post. <3

    Having control of the money supply is one of the most important economic tools any country can wield. To say that currency is not backed is fundamentally wrong. As I already stated, most currencies are backed by the full faith and credit of their government, which is way more stable and meaningful than gold.

    Maybe it's all a matter of perspective, after all, Japan's economy has been rather gutter bound since the 90s now, while in the US, the economy is growing pretty good and the job market is getting better all the time. Recovery is pretty much in full swing.

    Edit: Also, I'm 26, not 25, and yeah I know way more than you.
  • 90 percent insults, 10 percent relevant statements. That is quite good for the flibster. Normally it is just a stream of insults. Many many economic disasters have occurred with gold backed currencies. The idea that modern currency is somehow uniquely vulnerable is disproven by any grip on history. Since coming off the gold standard, the U.S. has had economic growth the likes of which no one had ever seen until recent China, which also does not use a gold standard. If the U.S. had an economic disaster on par with the Great Depression, you would still have to call non gold backed currency a grand success. If you contract by a third after expanding orders of magnitude, that math is impossible to argue with.

    The only folks who seem to argue for the gold standard seem to be fringe libertarians. Not even Rand Paul is pushing this hard anymore. Looking at history, the gold standard was constrive even in the nineteenth century. WJB and his cross of gold speech and all that. If the dollar were backed by however much of the 170000 tons of gold on Earth, that the U.S. could lay it's hands on, then dollar value gold ends up at is truly imaginary. The M3 number is at 10 trillion, so you end up in seven figures of dollars per ounce.

    In terms of doomsaying, I am talking Great Depression or better. People have been predicting a massive economic crash since at least the seventies. On a long enough time line, a massive economic crash will occur, but if you predict it for most of a human lifetime, and are wrong, I am unimpressed. Like a hypochondriac who finally gets cancer at 68, and thinks that proves their lifelong suspicions.
  • Not to mention, gold basically caused the great depression. US and French central banks start holding gold, do not introduce more currency into the system. Voila! Massive deflationary pressure from 1928-1931. Countries had less access to gold and thus reduced the money supply. Economic crash. Other factors contributed. Gold was the most guilty.
  • Good tweets from earlier today by https://twitter.com/WhelanKarl

    He's numbered them 1-10
  • Wait a minute, I changed my mind. If gold were a cool seven million an once, then we would be headed to the asteroid belt in no time. Granted, it would be a flatly insane reason to go into space, but gold lust got Europeans to cross oceans before. I am sorry, getting us into space for real real is more important to me than rational economic policy.

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